Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Back for 2011-12

It's good to be back. With the NBA on a long hiatus, there's more interest than ever in the college game and it's time for us to make some money while we're at it. Here are the Gamblin' Gorilla's first plays of the 2011-12 season:

Missouri (-2.5) vs. California
Both of these teams easily disposed of their first-round opponents in the CBE Classic last night and both like to get out and run to score easy transition points.

The Tigers have an experienced backcourt in Marcus Denmon and Kim English, which will serve them well against Cal's pressure defense. Mizzou also has the decided home-court advantage in this tournament, playing in their home state in Kansas City.

Cal is led by Jorge Gutierrez, a scrappy, quick guard whose toughness is the signature of this Cal team.

The Bears may have the advantage in coaching, but Mizzou will carry its home crowd and transition offense to victory here.

Take the Tigers for 3 Units.

Seton Hall (-8) vs. Yale
The Pirates have shown signs of life under head coach Kevin Willard and are expected to finish as the best of the worst in the Big East Conference this year. SHU already has solid wins over VCU and St. Joe's with the Pirates' only loss coming to a good Northwestern team.

Yale does not compare to any of those outfits Seton Hall has already faced. The Bulldogs dropped a game at Quinnipiac already this year and barely survived Central Connecticut State.

Seton Hall has some talent in big man Herb Pope and crafty guard Jordan Theodore. Coming off of a loss, the Hall will be motivated to get back on track with a big win over an out-matched Ivy League team.

Take the Hall for 3 Units.

Pittsburgh (-14.5) vs. La Salle
The Panthers have been stewing for six days, thinking about an embarrassing home loss to Long Beach State. Pitt played uncharacteristically poor on defense and now host the Explorers, who can score in bunches.

I think there's some value in taking Pitt here simply because they're coming off of a bad home loss and have something to prove on the defensive end.

Take Pitt for 2 Units.

Michigan (+7) vs. Duke
I'm not so convinced that the Blue Devils have things all figured out just yet. And that's fine since we're only in November.

Duke may become a top 5 team in the end, but after close wins over Belmont, Michigan State and Tennessee, Duke may have finally met a team that could give them problems for all 40 minutes.

The Wolverines play hard-nosed defense and don't turn the ball over much. They held a talented Memphis squad to just 61 points and are led by point guard Tim Hardaway, Jr.

Michigan gave Duke a tough test in the NCAA Tournament last March, and much of that Wolverines squad is back this year.

Coach John Belein can throw some curveballs at Duke with exotic defenses that will help slow the game down and keep Michigan in the game.

Take Michigan for 4 Units.

So, there's your appetizer for the college basketball season. Twelve units in play. Enjoy the games and check back soon for more selections.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Second Round-Saturday

St. Mary's vs. Villanova 152.5
Both of these teams have fantastic guard play and love to shoot early in the shot clock. The Gaels will have the benefit of Omar Samhan inside, who will be a tough matchup against Nova. Take the over for 4 Units.

Murray State vs. Butler (-4.5)
The Racers topped Vanderbilt, and should give the Bulldogs all they can handle. Take Murray State for 2 Units.

Ohio vs. Tennessee (-8.5)
Although the Bobcats are a huge underdog, they should be playing with a lot of confidence. Tennessee survived its first-round game, and they'll have to survive another one today. Take Ohio for 3 Units.

Northern Iowa vs. Kansas (-11.5)
UNI likes to slow the game down, and that will be the only chance they have to pull the upset. It'll be tough for Kansas to cover this spread. Take Northern Iowa for 2 Units.

Old Dominion vs. Baylor 128.5
The Bears have too many options on the offensive end to be held down. Take the over for 2 Units.

Washington vs. New Mexico 151
Both of these teams prefer an up-tempo style. This will be a fun one to watch. Take the over as my stone-cold, lead-pipe, Jimmer-third-game-bowling-under, 5-Unit lock.

BYU vs. Kansas State (-4.5)
The Cougars are a tough team and play a similar style to the Wildcats. They can hang around in this one. Take BYU for 2 Units.

Wake Forest vs. Kentucky (-9.5)
The Wildcats looked great in their first game, and Wake played a hard-fought overtime game. Take UK for 3 Units.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

NCAA First Round Plays

It has been requested that I pick all of the first round games, so I’ll oblige. What I’ll do is select a handful of games that I really like and research those, then I’ll pick the rest and assign 1 Unit to those games. Some will be picks on the line, and some will be on the total.

We’ll go in chronological order, so all you degenerates out there can double up during the day.

Thursday’s Games

Florida vs. Brighman Young (-5) O/U 146.5 11:15 p.m. (All times CDT)
We start off with maybe our best value play of the first round. The Gators backed into the tournament, losing four of five games, and some, like me, didn’t really think they belonged, much less deserved a 10 seed.
The Cougars went 14-4 in an underrated Mountain West Conference, and feature one of the most potent offenses in the country. BYU averages 83 points per game, led by Jimmer Fredette, who will be highly motivated to make sure he finishes his college career with a victory.
Florida isn’t committed enough on the defensive end to stop BYU for the whole game, and their athleticism may get them some offensive rebounds, but look for the more disciplined, a tournament-experienced Cougars to roll in this one.
Take BYU for 4 Units and the over for 3 Units.

Old Dominion vs. Notre Dame (-2.5) 11:25 p.m.
The Domers are one of the hottest teams entering this tournament, and I think ODU is getting too much credit for winning a weak league this season. Yes they beat Georgetown earlier this year, but ND has figure out that slowing the ball down and playing defense is it’s ticket to Ws. Take ND for 1 Unit.

Robert Morris vs. Villanova 147.5 11:30 p.m.
The Wildcats love to shoot early in the shot clock, and Robert Morris won’t put up much of a fight to stop them. The Cats will get an early lead, then run it up. Take the over for 1 Unit.

Murray State vs. Vanderbilt 140.5 12:30 p.m.
Both of these teams averaged 77 points per game this season. The Racers have shot 46 percent in their last five games, while Vandy has shot 43 percent from 3-point range in its last five.
This will be a high-scoring game. Take the over for 1 Unit.

North Texas vs. Kansas St. (-16) 1:40 p.m.
The Wildcats don’t have a ton of tournament experience, and I’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop on this team all year. They have a talented backcourt, but I think KSU might have some NCAA jitters now that the pressure in on them for the first time in a while. Take North Texas for 2 Units.

Sam Houston St. vs. Baylor (-10.5) 1:45 p.m.
What you need come tournament time is a talented backcourt, and an athletic big man that can erase defensive mistakes with his shot blocking. Baylor has both of those. Take the Bears for 1 Unit.

St. Mary’s vs. Richmond (-2) 1:50 p.m.
Both of these teams enter the tournament with a lot of confidence. The Gaels throttled Gonzaga in the WCC championship, and Richmond took a good Temple team to overtime in the A10 final.
The Spiders have been giant killers this season, but SMC has too many offensive options for Richmond to slow them down.
Take St. Mary’s for 3 Units.

UTEP vs. Butler (-2.5) 3:45 p.m.
If I could have Randy Culpepper’s kids, I would. That being said I could see this game going either way. Take UTEP for 1 Unit.

Northern Iowa vs. UNLV 114 6:10 p.m.
This is an intriguing matchup of an athletic Rebel team against the plodding Panthers.
Both teams will get up and guard you, and UNI limits their opponents’ run-outs in transition. This will be a rough game to watch, and played in the 50s. Take the under for 2 Units.

East Tennessee State vs. Kentucky (-19.5) 6:15 p.m.
Remember when Kentucky had problems putting away mediocre teams earlier in the year? Will the Buccaneers fit the bill, and the Wildcats might be looking past this one for a matchup against Texas. Take ETSU for 1 Unit.

Washington vs. Marquette (-1.5) 6:20 p.m.
I can’t pick against the alma mater. That being said, this matchup scares me. Take Marquette for 1 Unit.

Ohio vs. Georgetown (-13) 6:25 p.m.
The Bobcats were a No. 9 seed in their conference tournament. The Hoyas have enough experience to know not to look past this one. Take G’Town for 2 Units.

Lehigh vs. Kansas (-25) 8:30 p.m.
Bill Self isn’t shy about running up the score, and the Jayhawks are deep, so even the scrubs can score. Take KU for 1 Unit.

Wake Forest vs. Texas (-5) 8:35 p.m.
The Longhorns went into a freefall after reaching No. 1, while the Deacons went into a freefall when the calendar hit March.
This is a bad matchup for Wake as Texas is more athletic at every position. If Texas finally commits to defense, which they should now that this is their season, they’ll shut down the Wake Forest offense.
Damion James won’t let his career end with a first-round loss, and even though Rick Barnes couldn’t coach himself out of a paper bag, Texas’ athletes will get a lot of easy buckets off of dumb Wake turnovers.
Take Texas for a stone-cold, lead-pipe, Jimmer-third-game-bowling-under, 5-Unit lock.

Montana vs. New Mexico 135
The Lobos like to play a fast pace. That’s all I got. Take the over for 1 Unit.

San Diego State vs. Tennessee (-3.5)
The Vols have had to prove themselves all season, and Bruce Pearl has done a heck of a job with all that’s happened this season.
But Steve Fisher has also brought the Aztecs back from a mid-season slump to win a deep MWC Tournament.
If you don’t know the names Kawhi Leonard and D.J. Gay yet, you will after this game. SDSU’s desire and hustle will frustrate a Tennessee team that tends to be inconsistent, and struggles to score at times.
Take the Aztecs to win at +145 for 4 Units.

Friday’s Games

Morgan State vs. West Virginia 137 11:15 p.m.
The Mountaineers are a bad shooting team, but they play great defense. This one will be low scoring. Take the under for 1 Unit.

Minnesota vs. Xavier (PK) 11:25 p.m.
The Gophers made a great run in the Big Ten Tournament, which probably got them into the tournament. That doesn’t necessarily mean they belong there.
The Musketeers do though, and Minny has no one to match up with Jordan Crawford, who can be a black hole at times but I think realizes that he needs to share the ball for his team to advance.
Xavier will be just as physical as Minnesota, which will take away any mental edge Tubby might tell his team they have. The Muskies will come out hungry and get a tough win. Take Xavier for 3 Units.

Cornell vs. Temple 119 11:30 p.m.
The Owls are a brilliant defensive team, while Cornell loves to shoot the deep ball. Count on Temple slowing this game down. Take the under for 1 Unit.

Siena vs. Purdue (-4) 1:30 p.m.
The Saints have had some great tournament upsets in recent years, but their stud from those teams is gone.
Purdue’s stud is gone too, and they haven’t looked the same since Robbie Hummel’s injury.
That said, I’m not sure how this will affect the Boilers. Take Siena for 2 Units.

Missouri vs. Clemson 139 1:35 p.m.
Let’s see, both teams press, both are athletic and both like to score in transition. Sounds like an over for 2 Units.

Oakland vs. Pittsburgh 134.5 1:45 p.m.
The Panthers have little offense, and rely on their defense for wins. Take the under for 1 Units.

Wofford vs. Wisconsin 115.5 1:50 p.m.
I was up late listening to ESPN Radio on Sunday night, and they had the Wofford coach on. He said Wisconsin was the worst matchup for his team, because they play the same style, expect Wisconsin is bigger, deeper and more talented.
I first thought, that’s what she said, then thought this will be a low-scoring game. The coach then went on to say that the over/under will probably be 76. As you can see above, the over/under is not 76, and I’m trusting the Wofford coach that this will be an ugly game.
Take the under for Friday’s stone-cold, lead-pipe, Jimmer-third-game-bowling-under, 5-Unit lock.

Utah State vs. Texas A&M 125 3:45 p.m.
Both of these teams are committed defensively, and the Aggies love to go deep in the shot clock with their numerous offensive sets.
Their defense will disrupt the A&M offense, that is already limited without much guard scoring. Take the under for 3 Units.

Gonzaga vs. Florida State (-1.5) 6:10 p.m.
The Zags are better than the committee gave them credit, and their size will disrupt the Noles post men.
Mark Few always comes up with a good gameplan come tourney time. Take the Bulldogs for 3 Units.

Georgia Tech vs. Oklahoma State (-1.5) 6:15 p.m.
The Jackets turn the ball over too much, and that will hurt them against a good OSU team led by future lottery pick James Anderson. Take OSU for 2 Units.

New Mexico State vs. Michigan State 149 6:20 p.m.
Come tournament time Sparty plays great defense, and this will be no exception. Take the under for 1 Unit.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff vs. Duke (-23.5) 6:25 p.m.
The Devils are well rested and will come ready to play. Take Duke for 1 Unit.

Vermont vs. Syracuse 143 8:30 p.m.
The Orange will get theirs and Vermont will shoot over the zone to try and beat it. They’ll hit a few, so take the over for 1 Unit.

UC-Santa Barbara vs. Ohio State 132 8:35 p.m.
The Buckeyes were hotter than a pistol in their last game, and actually play a more up-tempo game than people give them credit for. Take the over for 1 Unit.

Houston vs. Maryland (-9.5) 8:40 p.m.
The Cougars will enter with a lot of confidence, having won their conference tournament to get in. They have the nation’s leading scorer and a good coach in Tom Penders. Take Houston for 2 Units.

Louisville vs. California (-1) 8:45 p.m.
It seems if the Cardinals are interested they can play with anyone. Well, they should be interested in this one, and their extended zone will limit Cal’s looks at 3-pointers.
If Samardo Samuels has a big game, the Cardinals can win. Take Louisville for 3 Units.

There you have it. All 32 first round games and 62 Units in play. Enjoy, and check back Saturday for more.

Saturday, March 13, 2010

March 14 Plays

After an average day, we’re rooting for the Hoyas tonight and have these plays for tomorrow.

Mississippi State vs. Kentucky (-7.5)
Kentucky’s defense is in top form, holding a dynamic Tennessee team to 45 points in the semifinals.
The Bulldogs took the Wildcats to the limit in their one meeting at Starkville earlier this season, but Kentucky is peaking right now and State’s running into a deep, motivated team.
Take the Wildcats and Ashley Judd for 4 Units.

Georgia Tech vs. Duke (-9.5)
The Yellow Jackets have survived some close games to get to the ACC Tournament final, while Duke has handled its two games pretty easily.
Tech has the talent to hang with the Blue Devils, and if they stay committed to ball distribution and defense they’ll be able to stay in this one.
Tech topped Duke once already this season, and they’ll keep this one close in a game they need more than Duke. Take the Yellow Jackets for 4 Units.

Minnesota vs. Ohio State (-4)
The Gophers are playing for their NCAA Tournament life and looked very motivated, especially on the defensive end against Purdue and Michigan State.
The Buckeyes are lucky to be in the finals after surviving close games against Michigan and Illinois.
Look for the Gopher’s size to disrupt the Buckeyes drives to the hoop and take Minnesota for 3 Units.

Richmond vs. Temple (-3.5)
Temple’s defense has been absolutely stifling so far in the A10 Tournament, and they’ve had some relatively easy games so far.
Richmond survived an overtime game against Xavier on Saturday, and face the Owls, who they defeated by 17 last time they matched up.
Temple will be ready to get its revenge, and Richmond’s offense will be too inconsistent in this one. Take Temple for 3 Units.

March 13 Plays

We picked up 5 Units yesterday, and here’s 19 more.

Vanderbilt (-2) vs. Mississippi State
The Commodores are in their hometown for this one, and match up well with the Bulldogs. A.J. Ogilvy can neutralize Jarvis Varnado on the inside, and Vaderbilt’s outside shooting will give MSU problems on defense.
Take Vandy for 3 Units.

Richmond vs. Xavier (-3)
The Spiders lost to the Muskies in overtime during their only matchup earlier this year. Richmond knows how to knock off big-time opponents, and will look to get some revenge today.
Take Richmond for 4 Units.

Minnesota vs. Purdue 125.5
These are two teams who actually don’t mind a faster pace, and they’ve both been putting up scored in the high 60s and 70 over their past few game.
Yes, we’re actually taking an over in a Big Ten game. Take the over for 2 Units.

Kansas State vs. Kansas 146
The Jayhawks held off the Wildcats’ offense in their last meeting, but KSU has its shooters playing with a lot of confidence after three games scoring in the 80s.
Kansas has plenty of weapons too, and this will be played at a fast pace. If the Wildcats can make their shots, this will be a high-scoring affair. Take the over for 4 Units.

Washington at California (-2)
These two teams split their regular season matchups, and both have pretty much cruised to the Pac 10 finals.
The Huskies have more to play for in this one, because they are on the bubble and would like to guarantee their bid to the NCAA Tournament.
The talent level on both sides is fairly equal and the Washington backcourt will keep them hanging around. Take Washington for 3 Units.

San Diego State vs. UNLV (-4)
See the second sentence in the above synopsis for my reasoning in this one. Take SDSU for 2 Units.

Georgetown vs. West Virginia (-2.5)
The Hoyas have been the most impressive team in this tournament so far, crushing South Florida, Syracuse and Marquette.
The Mountaineers have squeaked by their last two opponents, including a buzzer-beater by Da’Sean Butler against Cincinnati.
I don’t understand this line and why WVU is favored. Take the Hoyas for 4 Units.

Friday, March 12, 2010

March 12 Plays

Illinois vs. Wisconsin (-8)
The Illini got blasted by Bucky when these two teams faced off last week, and Illinois needed that win to help secure its standing in the NCAA Tournament.
They get another chance today, and Wisconsin might win this game, but it won’t be as easy as it was last time.
In the last game, Illinois settled for jump shots and didn’t attack the rim. Look for them to penetrate more for a more consistent offensive output.
Take Illinois for 3 Units.

Rhode Island vs. St. Louis 128
This is a battle of will as the Rams like a faster pace, but the Billikens prefer to slow it down.
RIU hasn’t been playing very well as of late and SLU should be able to contain them.
Take the under for 2 Units.

Northwestern vs. Purdue (-8)
The Wildcats will be playing with a lot of confidence after blowing out Indiana in the second half of yesterday’s game.
Purdue’s production is limited without Robbie Hummel, and Northwestern’s 3-point shot and gimmick defenses should allow them to hang around in this one.
Take Northwestern for 3 Units.

Georgia Tech vs. Maryland 144
Both of these teams aren’t shy about taking shots, and Maryland prefers a faster pace.
These teams have both inside and outside scoring, so this will be an offensive game. Take the over for 4 Units.

Minnesota vs. Michigan State (-3)
Obviously Minnesota played well yesterday against Penn State, but the Spartans are a different animal.
Michigan State has won eight straight in this series, and Sparty is still playing for a better seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Take MSU for 4 Units.

Notre Dame vs. West Virginia 127
The Irish have gone to a more methodical pace during their winning streak, and the Mountaineers play tough defense and have length.
Neither team surrenders a lot of offensive rebounds and WVU struggles with its outside shooting.
This will be a grind, so take the under for 3 Units.

Baylor vs. Kansas State 145.5
These teams each have superb guard play, combined with athletic big man, meaning they love to get up and down the floor.
Each teams has guards that love to shoot it and don’t get bashful if they miss a couple. The shot clock does not even need to be turned on for this one. Don’t understand the total here.
Take the over for a stone-cold, lead-pipe, Jimmer-third-game-bowling-under lock for 5 Units.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

March 11 Plays

Conference tournaments are underway and we’ve got some action today.

Miami vs. Wake Forest (-3.5)
The Deacons need one or two more wins to feel good about their standing heading into selection Sunday.
Miami has been playing better recently, but has not won many games. They’ve been in games, but haven’t been able to finish.
Expect Wake to come out motivated for an important win and look for Ish Smith to have a big game, knowing his days with the Deacons are numbered.
Take Wake for 4 Units.

Air Force vs. New Mexico 119
This will be a battle of wills as the Falcons like to slow the game down and New Mexico prefers an up-tempo style.
Air Force only averages about 54 points per game, and in their recent matchup the total was only 115.
However, Air Force’s defense might be a step slow today after playing a game yesterday against Wyoming.
New Mexico wants to advance deep in the conference tourney in order to improve its seed for the NCAA Tournament.
Take the over for 3 Units.

Oregon vs. California (-10.5)
Oregon played a hard-fought overtime game last night against Washington State, in which they had to make a late comeback to win.
The Ducks expended a lot of energy in that game and now face Cal’s high-powered offense.
This is a can’t lose game for the Bears, and Pac 10 Player of the Year Jerome Randle will make sure it doesn’t happen.
If Cal can limit Tajuan Porter, the Ducks don’t have many other options on offense.
Take Cal for 2 Units.

Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh (-1.5)
The Irish are playing well and may be the hottest team in the country, having won five straight games.
Pittsburgh got housed by Notre Dame in their only game this season, but that was in the Joyce Center.
Notre Dame has secured its trip to the NCAAs and the Panthers’ defense will frustrate Harangody and the Irish outside shooting.
Take Pitt for 4 Units.